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Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 Dec 22;106(51):21527-32. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0907765106. Epub 2009 Dec 7.

Global sea level linked to global temperature.

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1
Department of Surveying, Helsinki University of Technology, P.O. Box 1200, FI-02150, Espoo, Finland. martin.vermeer@tkk.fi

Abstract

We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880-2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990-2100.

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