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Epidemiol Infect. 2010 Jun;138(6):836-42. doi: 10.1017/S095026880999118X. Epub 2009 Nov 27.

Influenza-attributable mortality in Australians aged more than 50 years: a comparison of different modelling approaches.

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The School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, NSW 2052, Australia.


This study aimed to compare systematically approaches to estimating influenza-attributable mortality in older Australians. Using monthly age-specific death data together with viral surveillance counts for influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, we explored two of the most frequently used methods of estimating excess influenza-attributable disease: Poisson and Serfling regression models. These approaches produced consistent age and temporal patterns in estimates of influenza-attributable mortality in older Australians but some variation in the magnitude of the disease burden. Of Australians aged >50 years, average annual estimated influenza-attributable deaths (all cause) ranged from 2314 to 3457 for the Serfling and Poisson regression models, respectively. The excess influenza-attributable disease burden was substantial under all approaches.

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