Send to

Choose Destination
J Allergy Clin Immunol. 2009 Nov;124(5):921-7. doi: 10.1016/j.jaci.2009.09.006.

Recent asthma exacerbations predict future exacerbations in children with severe or difficult-to-treat asthma.

Author information

Genentech, Inc, South San Francisco, Calif, USA.



Children with severe/difficult-to-treat asthma experience high morbidity including frequent severe exacerbations. More knowledge is required to identify predictors of these exacerbations to reduce their occurrence.


To investigate the risk of future severe exacerbations (FSEs) in children with severe/difficult-to-treat asthma and recent severe exacerbations (RSEs).


We analyzed the occurrence and association of RSE (defined as 1 or more corticosteroid bursts during the 3 months before each of 3 annual visits) and FSE (defined as 1 or more corticosteroid bursts 6 or 12 months later) in children age 6 to 11 years in The Epidemiology and Natural History of Asthma: Outcomes and Treatment Regimens 3-year observational study. Repeated measures logistic regression analysis assessed the risk of FSE adjusted for demographics and clinical variables.


In a multivariable model, FSE at 6 months was most strongly predicted by RSE (odds ratio [OR], 3.08; 95% CI, 2.21-4.28) and having 3 to 4 allergic triggers (OR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.31-3.20). Race (OR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.25-2.51) and being very poorly controlled according to the impairment component of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute guidelines (OR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.14-2.23) also significantly predicted FSE.


Recent severe asthma exacerbations are an important independent predictor of FSE in children with severe/difficult-to-treat asthma and should be considered when establishing asthma management plans.

[Indexed for MEDLINE]

Supplemental Content

Full text links

Icon for Elsevier Science
Loading ...
Support Center