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Epidemiol Infect. 2010 Apr;138(4):457-68. doi: 10.1017/S0950268809990860. Epub 2009 Sep 28.

Modelling the impact of one-dose vs. two-dose vaccination regimens on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus in Australia.

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1
School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney NSW 2052, Australia. Z.Gao@unsw.edu.au

Abstract

We examined the impact of one-dose vs. two-dose vaccination strategies on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus (VZV) in Australia, using a mathematical model. Strategies were assessed in terms of varicella (natural and breakthrough) and zoster incidence, morbidity, average age of infection and vaccine effectiveness (VE). Our modelling results suggest that compared to a one-dose vaccination strategy (Australia's current vaccination schedule), a two-dose strategy is expected to not only produce less natural varicella cases (5% vs. 13% of pre-vaccination state, respectively) but also considerably fewer breakthrough varicella cases (only 11.4% of one-dose strategy). Therefore a two-dose infant vaccination programme would be a better long-term strategy for Australia.

PMID:
19781116
DOI:
10.1017/S0950268809990860
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
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