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Gac Med Mex. 2009 May-Jun;145(3):189-95.

[Estimating the 2006 prevalence of HIV by gender and risk groups in Tijuana, Mexico].

[Article in Spanish]

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School of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA.



Estimate the 2006 HIV prevalence among adults aged 15-49 from the general population and at-risk subgroups in Tijuana, Mexico.


Demographic data was obtained from the 2005 Mexican census and HIV prevalence data was obtained from reports in the literature. We developed a population-based HIV prevalence model for the overall population and stratified it by gender. Sensitivity analysis consisted of estimating standard errors in the weighted-average point prevalence and calculating partial derivatives of each parameter.


HIV prevalence among adults was 0.54% (N = 4347) (range 0.22-0.86% [N = 1750-6944]). This suggests that 0.85% (range 0.39-1.31%) of men and 0.22% (0.04-0.40%) of women could have been HIV-infected in 2006. Men who have sex with men (MSM), followed by female sex workers who are injection drug users (FSW-IDU), FSW-non IDU, female IDU, and male IDU were the most at risk groups of infected individuals.


The number of HIV-infected adults among at-risk subgroups in Tijuana is significant, highlighting the need to design tailored prevention interventions that focus on the specific needs of certain groups. According to our model, as many as 1 in 116 adults could potentially be HIV-infected.

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