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Health Aff (Millwood). 2009 Sep-Oct;28(5):w849-62. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.28.5.w849. Epub 2009 Aug 6.

Estimates of health care professional shortages in sub-Saharan Africa by 2015.

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School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.


This paper uses a forecasting model to estimate the need for, supply of, and shortage of doctors, nurses, and midwives in thirty-nine African countries for 2015, the target date of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. We forecast that thirty-one countries will experience needs-based shortages of doctors, nurses, and midwives, totaling approximately 800,000 health professionals. We estimate the additional annual wage bill required to eliminate the shortage at about $2.6 billion (2007 $US)-more than 2.5 times current wage-bill projections for 2015. We illustrate how changes in workforce mix can reduce this cost, and we discuss policy implications of our results.

[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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