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BMJ. 2009 Jul 28;339:b2968. doi: 10.1136/bmj.b2968.

Effectiveness of cervical screening with age: population based case-control study of prospectively recorded data.

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Cancer Research UK Centre for Epidemiology, Mathematics and Statistics, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Bart's and The London School of Medicine, Queen Mary University of London, London EC1M 6BQ.

Erratum in

  • BMJ. 2009;339:b3115.



To study the effect of cervical screening on incidence of cervical cancer as a function of age with particular focus on women screened under the age of 25.


Population based case-control study with prospectively recorded data on cervical screening.


Selected centres in the United Kingdom.


4012 women aged 20-69 with invasive cancer diagnosed in participating centres and two controls per case individually matched on age and area of residence.


Odds ratios for strength of association between cervical cancer and screening at particular ages.


There is no evidence that screening women aged 22-24 reduced the incidence of cervical cancer at ages 25-29 (odds ratio 1.11, 95% confidence interval 0.83 to 1.50). Similar results were seen for cancers restricted to squamous carcinoma or FIGO (International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics) stage IB or worse, but the numbers are insufficient to provide narrow confidence intervals. Screening was associated with a 60% reduction of cancers in women aged 40, increasing to 80% at age 64. Screening was particularly effective in preventing advanced stage cancers.


Cervical screening in women aged 20-24 has little or no impact on rates of invasive cervical cancer up to age 30. Some uncertainly still exists regarding its impact on advanced stage tumours in women under age 30. By contrast, screening older women leads to a substantial reduction in incidence of and mortality from cervical cancer. These data should help policy makers balance the impact of screening on cancer rates against its harms, such as overtreatment of lesions with little invasive potential.

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