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Liver Transpl. 2009 Apr;15(4):413-20. doi: 10.1002/lt.21712.

Decision analysis model for hepatitis B prophylaxis one year after liver transplantation.

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Department of Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.


In patients receiving orthotopic liver transplantation, hepatitis B recurrence rates have decreased significantly with the use of various methods for prophylaxis. At present, a combination of hepatitis B immunoglobulin (HBIG) and lamivudine is the standard of care, resulting in recurrence rates of 0% to 11%. Recent data suggest that the addition of adefovir to lamivudine is successful in treating patients with recurrent hepatitis B infection. A Markov model was used to compare costs and outcomes of 2 strategies for hepatitis B prophylaxis 1 year after transplantation. The first consisted of prophylaxis with lamivudine and adefovir (strategy 1), whereas the second consisted of intramuscular HBIG and lamivudine (strategy 2) with the addition of adefovir in patients who subsequently developed hepatitis B recurrence. Patients who failed with adefovir and lamivudine were then treated with tenofovir and entecavir. 16.8% of liver transplant recipients had hepatitis B recurrence after 10 years of treatment with lamivudine and HBIG. The medical costs for strategy 1 and strategy 2 after 10 years of therapy were $151,819 and $166,246, respectively, and this resulted in cost savings of $14,427. The decision analysis model began 1 year after liver transplantation. A 1-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the model was most sensitive to cost changes of adefovir and HBIG injections as well as variations in the hepatitis B virus recurrence rate. The model was robust to costs of lamivudine, laboratory costs, administrative fees, and office visit fees. Our decision analysis model resulted in marked savings in costs with strategy 1 (lamivudine and adefovir), providing pharmacoeconomic support for the use of this strategy as first-line therapy in hepatitis B prophylaxis in liver transplant recipients 1 year after liver transplantation.

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