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J Epidemiol. 2009;19(2):94-100. Epub 2009 Mar 6.

Risk charts illustrating the 10-year risk of myocardial infarction among residents of Japanese rural communities: the JMS Cohort Study.

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Division of Community and Family Medicine, Center for Community Medicine, Jichi Medical University, Tochigi 329-0498, Japan.



Risk charts that depict the absolute risk of myocardial infarction (MI) for each combination of risk factors in individuals are convenient and beneficial tools for primary prevention of ischemic heart disease. Although risk charts have been developed using data from North American and European cardiovascular cohort studies, there is no such chart derived from cardiovascular incidence data obtained from the Japanese population.


We calculated and constructed risk charts that estimate the 10-year absolute risk of MI by using data from the Jichi Medical School (JMS) Cohort Study--a prospective cohort study which followed 12 490 participants in 12 Japanese rural communities for an average of 10.9 years. We identified 92 cases of a clinically-certified MI event. Color-coded risk charts were created by calculating the absolute risk associated with the following conventional cardiovascular risk factors: age, sex, smoking status, diabetes status, systolic blood pressure, and serum total cholesterol.


In health education and clinical practice, particularly in rural communities, these charts should prove useful in understanding the risks of MI, without the need for cumbersome calculations. In addition, they can be expected to provide benefits by improving existing risk factors in individuals.

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