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Ecology. 2001;82(10):2673-2681.

SEASONALITY, PARASITE DIVERSITY, AND LOCAL EXTINCTIONS IN PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM MALARIA.

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1
Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, and Division of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, 142 Maxwell-Dworkin Laboratory, 33 Oxford Street, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138 USA.

Abstract

We incorporate stochastic, density-dependent seasonal recruitment in adult Anopheles mosquito populations in a discrete-event model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission and find the probabilities of parasite extinction higher than with perennial transmission. Seasonal fluctuations in vector populations act to synchronize the dynamics of infection and immunity in host populations, leading to fluctuations in parasite prevalence greater than expected solely on the basis of high- and low-season vector densities. This synchronization also biases frequencies of infection with multiple parasite phenotypes or genotypes.

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