Send to

Choose Destination
See comment in PubMed Commons below
Biom J. 2008 Aug;50(4):457-79. doi: 10.1002/bimj.200810443.

The performance of risk prediction models.

Author information

  • 1Department of Biostatistics, Øster Farimagsgade 5 opg. B, Postboks 2099, 1014 København.


For medical decision making and patient information, predictions of future status variables play an important role. Risk prediction models can be derived with many different statistical approaches. To compare them, measures of predictive performance are derived from ROC methodology and from probability forecasting theory. These tools can be applied to assess single markers, multivariable regression models and complex model selection algorithms. This article provides a systematic review of the modern way of assessing risk prediction models. Particular attention is put on proper benchmarks and resampling techniques that are important for the interpretation of measured performance. All methods are illustrated with data from a clinical study in head and neck cancer patients.

[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources

Other Literature Sources

PubMed Commons home

PubMed Commons

How to join PubMed Commons

    Supplemental Content

    Full text links

    Icon for Wiley
    Loading ...
    Support Center