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Ecol Lett. 2008 Nov;11(11):1157-1168. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01218.x. Epub 2008 Jul 17.

Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic.

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Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire d'Océanologie et de Géosciences', UMR LOG CNRS 8187, Station Marine, Université des Sciences et Technologies de Lille - Lille 1 BP 80, 62930 Wimereux, FranceSir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, Citadel Hill The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UKDTU Aqua, Charlottenlund Slot, 2920 Charlottenlund, DenmarkUniversité d'Artois, IUFM Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Centre de Gravelines, 40, rue Victor Hugo, BP 129, 59820 Gravelines, FranceLaboratoire d'Oceanographie de Villefranche (LOV), BP 28, 06234 Villefranche-sur-Mer Cedex, France.


Warming of the global climate is now unequivocal and its impact on Earth' functional units has become more apparent. Here, we show that marine ecosystems are not equally sensitive to climate change and reveal a critical thermal boundary where a small increase in temperature triggers abrupt ecosystem shifts seen across multiple trophic levels. This large-scale boundary is located in regions where abrupt ecosystem shifts have been reported in the North Atlantic sector and thereby allows us to link these shifts by a global common phenomenon. We show that these changes alter the biodiversity and carrying capacity of ecosystems and may, combined with fishing, precipitate the reduction of some stocks of Atlantic cod already severely impacted by exploitation. These findings offer a way to anticipate major ecosystem changes and to propose adaptive strategies for marine exploited resources such as cod in order to minimize social and economic consequences.

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