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J Gambl Stud. 2008 Sep;24(3):295-305. doi: 10.1007/s10899-008-9098-4. Epub 2008 May 30.

Near miss, gambler's fallacy and entrapment: their influence on lottery gamblers in Thailand.

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  • 1The Graduate School, Bangkok University, Rama 4 Road, Klongtoey, Bangkok 10110, Thailand.


Near miss, gambler's fallacy and entrapment are hypothesized to influence gambling behavior but their individual impact on gambling behavior and their relationships have not been investigated. This study examines the direct and mediated effects of near miss, gambler's fallacy and entrapment on lottery gambling among Thai lottery gamblers. Two groups of 200 lottery gamblers participated in the study. One group used superstitious methods to search for lottery numbers to bet, whereas the other group simply bought their tickets from lottery stalls. The superstitious group shows higher levels of near miss, gambler's fallacy, entrapment and lottery gambling. Three models of relationships among near miss, gambler's fallacy, entrapment and lottery gambling were constructed using LISREL program. The model that shows a direct effect of near miss, and one that shows a mediated effect of near miss fit the data equally. The results confirm a gambler's fallacy and entrapment as starting points in the theory of cognitive psychology of lottery gambling and the generalization of near miss in gambling motivation.

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