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Health Aff (Millwood). 2008 May-Jun;27(3):w232-41. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.27.3.w232. Epub 2008 Apr 29.

Will generalist physician supply meet demands of an increasing and aging population?

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  • 1University of Missouri-Columbia, USA.


We predict that population growth and aging will increase family physicians' and general internists' workloads by 29 percent between 2005 and 2025. We expect a 13 percent increased workload for care of children by pediatricians and family physicians. However, the supply of generalists for adult care, adjusted for age and sex, will increase 7 percent, or only 2 percent if the number of graduates continues to decline through 2008. We expect deficits of 35,000-44,000 adult care generalists, although the supply for care of children should be adequate. These forces threaten the nation's foundation of primary care for adults.

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