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Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Dec;136(12):1667-77. doi: 10.1017/S0950268808000290. Epub 2008 Apr 8.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue fever in Peru: 1994-2006.

Author information

1
School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA. gchowell@asu.edu

Abstract

SUMMARYThe weekly number of dengue cases in Peru, South America, stratified by province for the period 1994-2006 were analysed in conjunction with associated demographic, geographic and climatological data. Estimates of the reproduction number, moderately correlated with population size (Spearman rho=0.28, P=0.03), had a median of 1.76 (IQR 0.83-4.46). The distributions of dengue attack rates and epidemic durations follow power-law (Pareto) distributions (coefficient of determination >85%, P<0.004). Spatial heterogeneity of attack rates was highest in coastal areas followed by mountain and jungle areas. Our findings suggest a hierarchy of transmission events during the large 2000-2001 epidemic from large to small population areas when serotypes DEN-3 and DEN-4 were first identified (Spearman rho=-0.43, P=0.03). The need for spatial and temporal dengue epidemic data with a high degree of resolution not only increases our understanding of the dynamics of dengue but will also generate new hypotheses and provide a platform for testing innovative control policies.

PMID:
18394264
PMCID:
PMC2870787
DOI:
10.1017/S0950268808000290
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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