Solution of an infection model near threshold

Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2007 Jul;76(1 Pt 1):010901. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.76.010901. Epub 2007 Jul 16.

Abstract

We study the susceptible-infected-recovered model of epidemics in the vicinity of the threshold infectivity. We derive the distribution of total outbreak size in the limit of large population size N . This is accomplished by mapping the problem to the first passage time of a random walker subject to a drift that increases linearly with time. We recover the scaling results of Ben-Naim and Krapivsky that the effective maximal size of the outbreak scales as N2/3, with the average scaling as N1/3, with an explicit form for the scaling function.