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Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2007 May;75(5 Pt 2):055101. Epub 2007 May 14.

Analysis of self-organized criticality in the Olami-Feder-Christensen model and in real earthquakes.

Author information

1
NEST CNR-INFM & Scuola Normale Superiore, Piazza dei Cavalieri 7, I-56126 Pisa, Italy.

Abstract

We perform an analysis on the dissipative Olami-Feder-Christensen model on a small world topology considering avalanche size differences. We show that when criticality appears, the probability density functions (PDFs) for the avalanche size differences at different times have fat tails with a q-Gaussian shape. This behavior does not depend on the time interval adopted and is found also when considering energy differences between real earthquakes. Such a result can be analytically understood if the sizes (released energies) of the avalanches (earthquakes) have no correlations. Our findings support the hypothesis that a self-organized criticality mechanism with long-range interactions is at the origin of seismic events and indicate that it is not possible to predict the magnitude of the next earthquake knowing those of the previous ones.

PMID:
17677120
DOI:
10.1103/PhysRevE.75.055101

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