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Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Jun;136(6):852-64. Epub 2007 Jul 18.

Seasonal influenza in the United States, France, and Australia: transmission and prospects for control.

Author information

1
Theoretical Division (MS B284), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87544, USA. chowell@lanl.gov

Abstract

Recurrent epidemics of influenza are observed seasonally around the world with considerable health and economic consequences. A key quantity for the control of infectious diseases is the reproduction number, which measures the transmissibility of a pathogen and determines the magnitude of public health interventions necessary to control epidemics. Here we applied a simple epidemic model to weekly indicators of influenza mortality to estimate the reproduction numbers of seasonal influenza epidemics spanning three decades in the United States, France, and Australia. We found similar distributions of reproduction number estimates in the three countries, with mean value 1.3 and important year-to-year variability (range 0.9-2.1). Estimates derived from two different mortality indicators (pneumonia and influenza excess deaths and influenza-specific deaths) were in close agreement for the United States (correlation=0.61, P60%) in healthy individuals who respond well to vaccine, in addition to periodic re-vaccination due to evolving viral antigens and waning population immunity.

PMID:
17634159
PMCID:
PMC2680121
DOI:
10.1017/S0950268807009144
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article
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