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Prev Vet Med. 2007 May 16;79(2-4):257-73. Epub 2007 Feb 5.

A dynamic, optimal disease control model for foot-and-mouth disease: I. Model description.

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Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, United States.


A dynamic optimization model was developed and used to evaluate alternative foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategies. The model chose daily control strategies of depopulation and vaccination that minimized total regional cost for the entire epidemic duration, given disease dynamics and resource constraints. The disease dynamics and the impacts of control strategies on these dynamics were characterized in a set of difference equations; effects of movement restrictions on the disease dynamics were also considered. The model was applied to a three-county region in the Central Valley of California; the epidemic relationships were parameterized and validated using the information obtained from an FMD simulation model developed for the same region. The optimization model enables more efficient searches for desirable control strategies by considering all strategies simultaneously, providing the simulation model with optimization results to direct it in generating detailed predictions of potential FMD outbreaks.

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