Format

Send to

Choose Destination
Science. 2006 Dec 22;314(5807):1898-903.

Epochal evolution shapes the phylodynamics of interpandemic influenza A (H3N2) in humans.

Author information

1
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 2019 Kraus Natural Science Building, University of Michigan, 830 North University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1048, USA. kkoelle@psu.edu

Abstract

Human influenza A (subtype H3N2) is characterized genetically by the limited standing diversity of its hemagglutinin and antigenically by clusters that emerge and replace each other within 2 to 8 years. By introducing an epidemiological model that allows for differences between the genetic and antigenic properties of the virus's hemagglutinin, we show that these patterns can arise from cluster-specific immunity alone. Central to the formulation is a genotype-to-phenotype mapping, based on neutral networks, with antigenic phenotypes, not genotypes, determining the degree of strain cross-immunity. The model parsimoniously explains well-known, as well as previously unremarked, features of interpandemic influenza dynamics and evolution. It captures the observed boom-and-bust pattern of viral evolution, with periods of antigenic stasis during which genetic diversity grows, and with episodic contraction of this diversity during cluster transitions.

PMID:
17185596
DOI:
10.1126/science.1132745
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free full text

Supplemental Content

Full text links

Icon for HighWire
Loading ...
Support Center