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Biol Lett. 2006 Mar 22;2(1):148-51.

Predicting the consequences of carry-over effects for migratory populations.

Author information

1
Department of Forest Sciences, Centre for Applied Conservation Research, University of British Columbia, 3041-2424 Main Mall, Vancouver BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. rnorris@interchange.ubc.ca

Abstract

Migratory animals present a unique challenge for predicting population size because they are influenced by events in multiple stages of the annual cycle that are separated by large geographic distances. Here, we develop a model that incorporates non-fatal carry-over effects to predict changes in population size and show how this can be integrated with predictive models of habitat loss and deterioration. Examples from Barn swallows, Greater snow geese and American redstarts show how carry-over effects can be estimated and integrated into the model. Incorporation of carry-over effects should increase the predictive power of models. However, the challenge for developing accurate predictions rests both on the ability to estimate parameters from multiple stages of the annual cycle and to understand how events between these periods interact to influence individual success.

PMID:
17148350
PMCID:
PMC1617207
DOI:
10.1098/rsbl.2005.0397
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article
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