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J Dent Res. 2006 Dec;85(12):1147-51.

Predicting clustered dental implant survival using frailty methods.

Author information

1
Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard School of Dental Medicine, 55 Fruit Street, Warren 1201, Boston, MA 02114, USA. schuang@hsph.harvard.edu

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to predict future implant survival using information on risk factors and on the survival status of an individual's existing implant(s). We considered a retrospective cohort study with 677 individuals having 2349 implants placed. We proposed to predict the survival probabilities using the Cox proportional hazards frailty model, with three important risk factors: smoking status, timing of placement, and implant staging. For a non-smoking individual with 2 implants placed, an immediate implant and in one stage, the marginal probability that 1 implant would survive 12 months was 85.8% (95%CI: 77%, 91.7%), and the predicted joint probability of surviving for 12 months was 75.1% (95%CI: 62.1%, 84.7%). If 1 implant was placed earlier and had survived for 12 months, then the second implant had an 87.5% (95%CI: 80.3%, 92.4%) chance of surviving 12 months. Such conditional and joint predictions can assist in clinical decision-making for individuals.

PMID:
17122171
PMCID:
PMC2443684
DOI:
10.1177/154405910608501216
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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