Assessing the natural course of diabetic retinopathy: a population-based study in Kinmen, Taiwan

Ophthalmic Epidemiol. 2006 Oct;13(5):327-33. doi: 10.1080/09286580600826637.

Abstract

Purpose: To explore the natural course of diabetic retinopathy among type 2 diabetics using the indirect ophthalmoscope and single-field fundus photographs in Kinmen, Taiwan.

Methods: A screening program for diabetic retinopathy was carried out by a panel of ophthalmologists, who employed the ophthalmoscope and 45-degree retinal color photographs to examine the fundus after pupil dilation. Screening, which was conducted between 1999 and 2002, involved 971 patients diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. A multi-state Markov model was used to assess the natural course of diabetic retinopathy among type 2 diabetics.

Results: Among the 725 diabetes patients who attended at least two ophthalmological fundus check-ups and were screened, the overall response rate was about 75%. The mean duration of the disease states mild nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy, moderate nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy, severe nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy, and proliferative diabetic retinopathy were 4.05 [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.28-5.32], 4.18 (95% CI: 3.18-6.06), 2.52 (95% CI: 1.78-4.27), and 4.22 (95% CI: 2.88-7.81) years, respectively. Compared to controls, the incidence of blindness reduction for annual, biennial, 3-year, 4-year, and 5-year screenings of diabetic retinopathy were approximately 94.4% (95% CI: 91.6%-96.3%), 83.9% (95% CI: 83.6%-84.2%), 70.2% (95% CI: 69.8%-70.7%), 57.2% (95% CI: 56.7%-57.7%), and 45.6% (95% CI: 45.0%-46.1%), respectively.

Conclusions: In conclusion, the average time for the development of diabetic retinopathy from nonexistence to blindness was approximately 26.5 years. The present recommendation for annual screening in type 2 diabetics with nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy should be retained only for the mild form, not for the moderate or severe forms.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Community Health Services
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / complications
  • Diabetic Retinopathy / diagnosis*
  • Diabetic Retinopathy / epidemiology
  • Disease Progression
  • Female
  • Fundus Oculi
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Markov Chains
  • Middle Aged
  • Ophthalmoscopy
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Taiwan / epidemiology