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Aust N Z J Psychiatry. 2006 Nov-Dec;40(11-12):1025-30.

Predictors of depression 12 months after cardiac hospitalization: the Identifying Depression as a Comorbid Condition study.

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Department of Psychiatry, University of Adelaide, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Woodville, South Australia, Australia.



To determine characteristics which predict depression at 12 months after cardiac hospitalization, and track the natural history of depression.


Depressive symptoms were monitored at baseline, 3 and 12 months in a cohort of 785 patients, using the self-report Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale. Multinomial regression analyses of baseline clinical and demographic variables identified characteristics associated with depression at 12 months.


Three baseline variables predicted moderate to severe depression at 12 months: depression during index admission, past history of emotional health problems and current smoking. For those who were depressed during cardiac hospitalization, 51% remained depressed at both 3 and 12 months. Persistence was more evident in patients who had moderate to severe depressive symptoms when hospitalized. Mild depression was as likely to persist as to remit.


Three clinically accessible characteristics at the time of cardiac hospitalization can assist in predicting depression at 12 months and may aid treatment decisions. Depressive symptoms persist in a substantial proportion of cardiac patients up to 12 months after hospitalization.

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