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Accid Anal Prev. 2007 Mar;39(2):238-51. Epub 2006 Sep 26.

Bicyclist injury severities in bicycle-motor vehicle accidents.

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1
Washington University in St. Louis, Department of Civil Engineering, Campus Box 1130, One Brookings Drive, St. Louis, MO 63130-4899, USA. jk9@cec.wustl.edu

Abstract

This research explores the factors contributing to the injury severity of bicyclists in bicycle-motor vehicle accidents using a multinomial logit model. The model predicts the probability of four injury severity outcomes: fatal, incapacitating, non-incapacitating, and possible or no injury. The analysis is based on police-reported accident data between 1997 and 2002 from North Carolina, USA. The results show several factors which more than double the probability of a bicyclist suffering a fatal injury in an accident, all other things being kept constant. Notably, inclement weather, darkness with no streetlights, a.m. peak (06:00 a.m. to 09:59 a.m.), head-on collision, speeding-involved, vehicle speeds above 48.3 km/h (30 mph), truck involved, intoxicated driver, bicyclist age 55 or over, and intoxicated bicyclist. The largest effect is caused when estimated vehicle speed prior to impact is greater than 80.5 km/h (50 mph), where the probability of fatal injury increases more than 16-fold. Speed also shows a threshold effect at 32.2 km/h (20 mph), which supports the commonly used 30km/h speed limit in residential neighborhoods. The results also imply that bicyclist fault is more closely correlated with greater bicyclist injury severity than driver fault.

PMID:
17005154
DOI:
10.1016/j.aap.2006.07.002
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
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