We present a semianalytical model that quantitatively predicts the scattering of light by a single subwavelength slit in a thick metal screen. In contrast to previous theoretical works related to the transmission properties of the slit, the analysis emphasizes the generation of surface plasmons at the slit apertures. The model relies on a two-stage scattering mechanism, a purely geometric diffraction problem in the immediate vicinity of the slit aperture followed by the launching of a bounded surface-plasmon wave on the flat interfaces surrounding the aperture. By comparison with a full electromagnetic treatment, the model is shown to provide accurate formulas for the plasmonic generation strength coefficients, even for metals with a low conductivity. Limitations are outlined for large slit widths (>lambda) or oblique incidence (>30 degrees ) when the slit is illuminated by a plane wave.