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Science. 2006 Apr 21;312(5772):392-4.

Predictability and preparedness in influenza control.

Author information

1
Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK. dsmith@zoo.cam.ac.uk

Erratum in

  • Science. 2006 Jun 16;312(5780):1600.

Abstract

The threat of pandemic human influenza looms as we survey the ongoing avian influenza pandemic and wonder if and when it will jump species. What are the risks and how can we plan? The nub of the problem lies in the inherent variability of the virus, which makes prediction difficult. However, it is not impossible; mathematical models can help determine and quantify critical parameters and thresholds in the relationships of those parameters, even if the relationships are nonlinear and obscure to simple reasoning. Mathematical models can derive estimates for the levels of drug stockpiles needed to buy time, how and when to modify vaccines, whom to target with vaccines and drugs, and when to enforce quarantine measures. Regardless, the models used for pandemic planning must be tested, and for this we must continue to gather data, not just for exceptional scenarios but also for seasonal influenza.

PMID:
16627736
DOI:
10.1126/science.1122665
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
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