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Science. 2006 Mar 24;311(5768):1751-3.

Simulating Arctic climate warmth and icefield retreat in the last interglaciation.

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  • 1Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO 80305, USA.


In the future, Arctic warming and the melting of polar glaciers will be considerable, but the magnitude of both is uncertain. We used a global climate model, a dynamic ice sheet model, and paleoclimatic data to evaluate Northern Hemisphere high-latitude warming and its impact on Arctic icefields during the Last Interglaciation. Our simulated climate matches paleoclimatic observations of past warming, and the combination of physically based climate and ice-sheet modeling with ice-core constraints indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet and other circum-Arctic ice fields likely contributed 2.2 to 3.4 meters of sea-level rise during the Last Interglaciation.

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