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Nature. 2006 Feb 16;439(7078):835-8.

Detection of a direct carbon dioxide effect in continental river runoff records.

Author information

1
Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (JCHMR), Maclean Building, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK. nicola.gedney@metoffice.gov.uk

Abstract

Continental runoff has increased through the twentieth century despite more intensive human water consumption. Possible reasons for the increase include: climate change and variability, deforestation, solar dimming, and direct atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) effects on plant transpiration. All of these mechanisms have the potential to affect precipitation and/or evaporation and thereby modify runoff. Here we use a mechanistic land-surface model and optimal fingerprinting statistical techniques to attribute observational runoff changes into contributions due to these factors. The model successfully captures the climate-driven inter-annual runoff variability, but twentieth-century climate alone is insufficient to explain the runoff trends. Instead we find that the trends are consistent with a suppression of plant transpiration due to CO2-induced stomatal closure. This result will affect projections of freshwater availability, and also represents the detection of a direct CO2 effect on the functioning of the terrestrial biosphere.

PMID:
16482155
DOI:
10.1038/nature04504
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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