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Environ Pollut. 2006 Jan;139(1):183-93. Epub 2005 Aug 8.

Modeling the dynamic changes in concentrations of gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (gamma-HCH) in Tianjin region from 1953 to 2020.

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  • 1Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China. taos@urban.pku.edu.cn

Abstract

A level IV fugacity model was used to simulate the dynamic changes of gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (gamma-HCH) concentrations in environmental media in Tianjin, China. A similar model (level III) was previously used and validated under steady state conditions; this paper explores its dynamic behavior. Application of the level IV fugacity model has been validated using independently observed gamma-HCH concentrations in various media during the early 1980s and during 2001. Sensitivity analysis was conducted using coefficient-of-variation normalized sensitivity coefficients. The model was also subject to uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo simulation. It was found that concentrations of gamma-HCH reached within 95% of their steady-state levels in all media after less than 15 years. Around one order-of-magnitude decreases in gamma-HCH concentrations in various media occurred between 1993 and 2001. We project that gamma-HCH concentrations will decrease another 1.7-1.9 orders of magnitude to reach 1.1 (0.9-1.2) x 10(-14), 2.7 (2.5-3.0) x 10(-10), 1.2 (1.1-1.3) x 10(-7), and 6.1 (5.4-6.8) x 10(-8) mol/m(3), in air, water, soil, and sediment, respectively, by 2020. The sensitivities and true uncertainty of the model are discussed.

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