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Science. 2005 Aug 12;309(5737):1083-7. Epub 2005 Aug 3.

Containing pandemic influenza at the source.

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1
Department of Biostatistics, The Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Road, N.E., Atlanta, GA 30322, USA. longini@sph.emory.edu

Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza A (subtype H5N1) is threatening to cause a human pandemic of potentially devastating proportions. We used a stochastic influenza simulation model for rural Southeast Asia to investigate the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, quarantine, and pre-vaccination in containing an emerging influenza strain at the source. If the basic reproductive number (R0) was below 1.60, our simulations showed that a prepared response with targeted antivirals would have a high probability of containing the disease. In that case, an antiviral agent stockpile on the order of 100,000 to 1 million courses for treatment and prophylaxis would be sufficient. If pre-vaccination occurred, then targeted antiviral prophylaxis could be effective for containing strains with an R0 as high as 2.1. Combinations of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, pre-vaccination, and quarantine could contain strains with an R(0) as high as 2.4.

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PMID:
16079251
DOI:
10.1126/science.1115717
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
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