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Demography. 2005 Feb;42(1):23-49.

Long-range trends in adult mortality: models and projection methods.

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Population Council, 1 Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017, USA.


In the study reported here, I had two objectives: (1) to test a new version of the logistic model for the pattern of change over time in age-specific adult mortality rates and (2) to develop a new method for projecting future trends in adult mortality. A test of the goodness of fit of the logistic model for the force of mortality indicated that its slope parameter is nearly constant over time. This finding suggests a variant of the model that is called the shifting logistic model. A new projection method, based on the shifting mortality model, is proposed and compared with the widely used Lee-Carter procedure.

[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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