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Community Dent Oral Epidemiol. 1992 Apr;20(2):64-75.

The University of North Carolina Caries Risk Assessment study: further developments in caries risk prediction.

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Department of Dental Ecology, School of Dentistry, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill 27599-7450.


Over 4000 first and fifth grade children from the areas surrounding Aiken, South Carolina, and Portland, Maine, participated in a 4-yr study to develop caries risk assessment models. The predictors used at baseline included detailed clinical examinations, salivary microbiological tests, and sociodemographic and dental behavior data. Mean 3-yr caries increments in South Carolina were twice those in Maine. For the four risk assessment models (two grade cohorts at two sites) specificity values averaged 0.83 and sensitivity values averaged 0.60. Clinical predictors such as prior DMFS, pit and fissure morphology, and predicted caries risk status were the major contributors to the models.

[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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