Send to

Choose Destination
Br J Cancer. 2004 Oct 18;91(8):1580-90.

The BOADICEA model of genetic susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancer.

Author information

Cancer Research UK, Genetic Epidemiology Unit, Strangeways Research Laboratory, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Worts Causeway, Cambridge CB1 8RN, UK.


Several genes conferring susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancer, notably BRCA1 and BRCA2, have been identified. The majority of the familial aggregation of breast cancer is, however, not explained by these genes. We have previously derived, using segregation analysis, a susceptibility model (BOADICEA, Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm) in which susceptibility to these genes is explained by mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 together with a polygenic component reflecting the joint multiplicative effect of multiple genes of small effect on breast cancer risk. Here, we consider the predictions made by this model. The overall familial risks of breast cancer predicted by this model are close to those observed in epidemiological studies. The predicted prevalences of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations among unselected cases of breast and ovarian cancer are also consistent with observations from population-based studies. These predictions are closer to the observed values than those obtained using the Claus model and BRCAPRO. The predicted mutation probabilities and cancer risks in individuals with a family history (FH) can differ markedly from those predicted by other models. We conclude that this model provides a rational basis for risk assessment in individuals with a FH of breast or ovarian cancer.

[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

Supplemental Content

Full text links

Icon for Nature Publishing Group Icon for PubMed Central
Loading ...
Support Center