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Malar J. 2004 Sep 6;3:32.

A weather-driven model of malaria transmission.

Author information

1
Virtual Population Laboratory, Department of Physics, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZE, UK. hoshen@liv.ac.uk

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Climate is a major driving force behind malaria transmission and climate data are often used to account for the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in malaria transmission.

METHODS:

This paper describes a mathematical-biological model of the parasite dynamics, comprising both the weather-dependent within-vector stages and the weather-independent within-host stages.

RESULTS:

Numerical evaluations of the model in both time and space show that it qualitatively reconstructs the prevalence of infection.

CONCLUSION:

A process-based modelling structure has been developed that may be suitable for the simulation of malaria forecasts based on seasonal weather forecasts.

PMID:
15350206
PMCID:
PMC520827
DOI:
10.1186/1475-2875-3-32
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article
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