The use of actuarials at civil commitment hearings to predict the likelihood of future sexual violence

Sex Abuse. 2003 Oct;15(4):377-82. doi: 10.1177/107906320301500412.

Abstract

Some have argued that acturarial methods such as the RRASOR, the MNSOSTR, and the Static-99, can outperform clinical judgments when utilized at a civil commitment hearing to make a prediction. Although actuarial data can be used to identify a group of persons to be considered for possible civil commitment, at present it cannot be used to accurately predict the likelihood of future acts of sexual violence with respect to any specific individual within such a group. For that reason, it might be best to restrict the use of acturial data to the initial screening process, rather than introducing it at the commitment hearing itself.

Publication types

  • Comment

MeSH terms

  • Actuarial Analysis*
  • Criminal Psychology / standards*
  • Forecasting
  • Forensic Psychiatry / methods
  • Humans
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Risk Assessment / methods*
  • Risk Factors
  • Sex Offenses / prevention & control*
  • Sex Offenses / psychology
  • United States
  • Violence / prevention & control*
  • Violence / psychology