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Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2003 Nov 11;100(23):13127-33. Epub 2003 Sep 23.

Estimating mean lifetime.

Author information

1
Population Council, New York, NY 10017, USA. jbongaarts@popcouncil.org

Abstract

The life expectancy implied by current age-specific mortality rates is calculated with life table methods that are among the oldest and most fundamental tools of demography. We demonstrate that these conventional estimates of period life expectancy are affected by an undesirable "tempo effect." The tempo effect is positive when the mean age at death is rising and negative when the mean is declining. Estimates of the effect for females in three countries with high and rising life expectancy range from 1.6 yr in the U.S. and Sweden to 2.4 yr in France for the period 1980-1995.

PMID:
14506294
PMCID:
PMC263728
DOI:
10.1073/pnas.2035060100
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article
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