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J Clin Epidemiol. 2003 Sep;56(9):880-90.

Coronary heart disease risk prediction in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

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Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina, CB #8300, 137 East Franklin Street, Suite 400, Bank of America Center, Chapel Hill, NC 27514-4145, USA.


Risk prediction functions for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) were estimated using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, a prospective study of CHD in 15,792 persons recruited in 1987-1989 from four U.S. communities, with follow-up through 1998. Predictivity of which individuals had incident CHD was assessed by increase in area under ROC curves resulting from adding nontraditional risk factors and markers of subclinical disease to a basic model containing only traditional risk factors. We also assessed the increase in population attributable risk. The additional factors were body mass index; waist-hip ratio; sport activity index; forced expiratory volume; plasma fibrinogen, factor VIII, von Willebrand factor, and Lp(a); heart rate; Keys score; pack-years smoking; and subclinical disease marker carotid intima-media thickness. These factors substantially improved prediction of future CHD for men, less for women, and also increased attributable risks.

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