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Biomed Environ Sci. 2003 Jun;16(2):133-9.

Temperature and daily mortality in Shanghai: a time-series study.

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Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.



To investigate the association between temperature and daily mortality in Shanghai from June 1, 2000 to December 31, 2001.


Time-series approach was used to estimate the effect of temperature on daily total and cause-specific mortality. We fitted generalized additive Poisson regression using non-parametric smooth functions to control for long-term time trend, season and other variables. We also controlled for day of the week.


A gently sloping V-like relationship between total mortality and temperature was found, with an optimum temperature (e.g. temperature with lowest mortality risk) value of 26.7 degrees C in Shanghai. For temperatures above the optimum value, total mortality increased by 0.73% for each degree Celsius increase; while for temperature below the optimum value, total mortality decreased by 1.21% for each degree Celsius increase.


Our findings indicate that temperature has an effect on daily mortality in Shanghai, and the time-series approach is a useful tool for studying the temperature-mortality association.

[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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