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Biomed Environ Sci. 2003 Jun;16(2):133-9.

Temperature and daily mortality in Shanghai: a time-series study.

Author information

1
Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE:

To investigate the association between temperature and daily mortality in Shanghai from June 1, 2000 to December 31, 2001.

METHODS:

Time-series approach was used to estimate the effect of temperature on daily total and cause-specific mortality. We fitted generalized additive Poisson regression using non-parametric smooth functions to control for long-term time trend, season and other variables. We also controlled for day of the week.

RESULTS:

A gently sloping V-like relationship between total mortality and temperature was found, with an optimum temperature (e.g. temperature with lowest mortality risk) value of 26.7 degrees C in Shanghai. For temperatures above the optimum value, total mortality increased by 0.73% for each degree Celsius increase; while for temperature below the optimum value, total mortality decreased by 1.21% for each degree Celsius increase.

CONCLUSIONS:

Our findings indicate that temperature has an effect on daily mortality in Shanghai, and the time-series approach is a useful tool for studying the temperature-mortality association.

PMID:
12964786
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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