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Gynecol Oncol. 2003 Aug;90(2):358-65.

Factors predicting human papillomavirus clearance in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia lesions treated by conization.

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Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy.



The objective was to identify the factors, if any, that may predict long-term results of CIN treatment and HPV clearance/persistence after locally excisional therapy.


A series of 252 women with CIN lesions treated by conization were subjected to sequential HPV detection by repeated PCR during the prospective posttreatment follow-up. Factors predicting viral clearance during the follow-up (10.26 months) were elaborated using univariate and multivariate statistical techniques applied on epidemiological, clinical and biological data of the lesions.


Sensitivity of the PAP test in detecting high-grade lesions was 93.9%, and specificity 27.3%. Odds ratio for having CIN 3/Stage IA1 squamous cervical cancer in the cone with HSIL PAP test was 5.69; 77.8 and 22.2% residual disease were found among PCR-positive and -negative cases, respectively. HPV DNA was negative in 74/252 (29.8%) samples at the first PCR. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that HPV 16 was an independent explanatory factor for high-grade CIN (P = 0.0001). HPV clearance increased to 63.5% at completion of the follow-up, corresponding to the monthly clearance rate of 5.27%. In Kaplan-Meier analysis, the highly significant (P = 0.0001) predictors of HPV clearance/persistence were age, lesion grade in the biopsy, lesion grade in the cone, volume of the cone, length of active sexual life, and involvement of endocervical margin (P = 0.0013). In chi-square tests, high-risk HPV type (P = 0.001) was such a predictor. In multivariate (Cox) model, the significant independent predictors of HPV clearance were involved endocervical margin (P = 0.001), lesion grade in the cone (P = 0.004), high-grade lesion in the colposcopic biopsy (P = 0.023), age (P = 0.029), and HSIL in PAP smear (P = 0.029).


These data suggest that posttreatment follow-up should include both the PAP test and HPV detection techniques for early detection of any patients at increased risk for disease recurrence and progression, because of persistent oncogenic HPV types.

[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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