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Lancet. 2002 Nov 16;360(9345):1546-51.

Markers of HIV-1 disease progression in individuals with haemophilia coinfected with hepatitis C virus: a longitudinal study.

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Department of Primary Care and Population Sciences, Royal Free Centre for HIV Medicine, Royal Free and University College Medical School, London, UK.



Low serum albumin concentration is associated with short-term survival in individuals with HIV-1. However, few investigators have assessed whether individuals with a low serum albumin concentration have delayed progression to AIDS, or survive in the long term. We aimed to assess the relation between markers of liver function and progression to AIDS and death in individuals with haemophilia infected with HIV-1 and hepatitis C virus.


We measured markers of liver function and took CD4 counts every 3 months in 111 patients registered at the Royal Free Hospital Haemophilia Centre, London, UK. HIV RNA concentrations were measured yearly and then every 3-6 months from 1996. We used Cox's regression models to assess the independent prognostic value of these markers for AIDS and death.


As a fixed covariate, albumin concentrations measured shortly after HIV-1 seroconversion were associated with risk of AIDS (relative hazard 0.91 [95% CI 0.84-1.00], p=0.04) and death (0.89 [0.82-0.96], p=0.004) over a 15-year period. These findings were independent of the CD4 count and HIV-1 RNA concentration. As a time-updated covariate, after adjustment for CD4 count and HIV-1 RNA concentrations, albumin was not associated with progression to AIDS (0.96 [0.90-1.01], p=0.13), but was strongly associated with death (0.88 [0.84-0.93], p<0.0001) in the short term.


Low concentrations of albumin in individuals infected with HIV-1 could indicate a poor outlook and should therefore prompt concern at any stage of infection.

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