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Maandstat Bevolking. 1991 Sep;39(9):31-9.

[Uncertainty variants in population forecasts for the Netherlands].

[Article in Dutch]

Abstract

"Because of the uncertainty of population forecasts the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics publishes a Low and a High variant next to the Medium variant.... Variants are obtained by using a deterministic model. Hence the probability that the interval between the variants [covers] the true future values is unknown. Under reasonable assumptions a statistical confidence interval for total population size can be derived. The basic assumption is that the forecast errors of population growth are serially correlated. If a first-order autoregressive model is estimated on the basis of all population forecasts published...since 1950, it turns out that the interval between the Low and High variants corresponds reasonably close to a two-thirds confidence interval in the next two decades." (SUMMARY IN ENG).

PMID:
12317045
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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