Comments on "International Development Perspectives for the 90s"

Pak Dev Rev. 1991 Winter;30(4 Pt 1):493-6.

Abstract

PIP: Comments on the UN paper on the Development Decade of the 1980s and the next decade of the 1990s by Gamani Corea are presented. Corea's statements about the future are considered fair, but negative and lacking in quantitative input. As an econometrician and a quantitative economist, the author feels that the shortterm and mediumterm economic prospects are that 1988 was a good year, 1989 all right, and 1990 was recessionary for some countries. Recovery is anticipated by 1992. The Gulf crisis of 1990-91 caused fluctuations in energy prices and uncertainty or fear in people, which is hoped to be transitory and without major impact on economic matters. Positive expansion in the world economy after 1992 is anticipated, in spite of the recessions in the UK and some Nordic countries. Western Europe slowed, but the advent of the Single Market is favorable to an upswing. The Asia/Pacific arena is strong, and achievements in South Korea are considerable. Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, and Chile are promising. Other economic problems in Latin America are only temporary. South Asia has done well. The Middle East and North Africa may have more lasting consequences of the Gulf war. Sub-Saharan Africa is in trouble with the race between population growth and food supplies, and negative or near zero growth rates/capita. Developing countries are experiencing severe recessionary adjustment periods in world economic malaise. With the collapse of socialism, there is no viable "Second World," and there are industrialized and developing countries. Eastern Europe and the USSR have a skilled population with the potential for producing world class goods and services. Primary commodity markets are expected to rise again which will strengthen export earnings in the developing world. Macroeconomic visions of hope are based on contingencies: financial fragility, issues related to the Gulf crisis, poor financial conditions in the US and to a certain extent in Japan and other financial centers. Trade negotiations in the Uruguay Round are in difficulty, which restricts free trade, and dilutes strong and vigorous activity which helps development. The economic restructuring of Europe is moving more slowly, but the Arms race is still extant in Third World countries such as Iraq. Price stabilization efforts may be futile attempts when underlying behavior patterns of production and consumption take over. Europe is the primary growth area. The Peace Dividend has been reduced because of Iraq's postures. South/South trade may be an option for developing countries. There is potential for expansion in e.g., and electronics, medical care, telecommunications, bioengineering, metallurgy, software construction. Technology and economics and international cooperation and coordination are hopeful prospects for the future.

MeSH terms

  • Commerce*
  • Developed Countries*
  • Developing Countries*
  • Economics*
  • Evaluation Studies as Topic*
  • International Agencies
  • Organizations
  • United Nations*