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J Infect Dis. 2002 Jun 15;185(12):1717-22. Epub 2002 May 31.

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) polymerase chain reaction profiles in individuals with advanced human immunodeficiency virus infection: relationship to CMV disease.

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Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Infectious Disease, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX 77555-0835, USA.


Cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease is a common complication of patients with advanced human immunodeficiency virus infection. The aim of the present study, based on a case-cohort design, was to determine the predictive value of follow-up and baseline qualitative plasma CMV polymerase chain reaction (PCR) values for CMV end-organ disease in 378 patients (158 who progressed to CMV end-organ disease and 220 who did not develop CMV disease). These patients are part of the full AIDS Clinical Trials Group 204 multinational study (1227 patients), a randomized, controlled trial that compared the effects of valacyclovir with those of acyclovir for CMV disease prevention. Baseline PCR positivity was a significant risk factor for CMV disease progression (relative risk [RR], 1.81; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09-3.00). In multivariate analyses, time-updated PCR positivity was strongly associated with progression to CMV end-organ disease (RR, 4.42; 95% CI, 2.87-6.81). Change in cumulative PCR status was informative for the risk of subsequent CMV disease.

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