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Health Aff (Millwood). 2002 Mar-Apr;21(2):207-18.

Health spending projections for 2001-2011: the latest outlook.

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  • 1Office of the Actuary, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), Baltimore, USA.


This paper describes the most recent ten-year projections of national health spending. projections, produced annually, are based on econometric and actuarial models of the health sector. Our current outlook includes a sharper near-term increase in the health sector's share of gross domestic product (GDP), which reaches 16.8 percent by 2010, compared with the 15.9 percent projected last year. This difference largely reflects legislation-driven increases in public spending growth combined with a weaker economic outlook. Recent acceleration in private-sector health spending is projected to peak in 2002.

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