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Phys Rev Lett. 2002 Jan 7;88(1):017902. Epub 2001 Dec 14.

Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population.

Author information

1
Oxford Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Oxford University, Oxford, OX1 3LB, United Kingdom.

Abstract

The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological, and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes ("extreme events"). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multiagent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability increases prior to a large change. These large changes hence arise as a predictable consequence of information encoded in the system's global state.

PMID:
11800987
DOI:
10.1103/PhysRevLett.88.017902
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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