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Science. 2001 Dec 7;294(5549):2149-52.

Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum.

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1
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA.

Abstract

We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th-century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 degrees to 0.4 degrees C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation as solar irradiance decreases. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1 degrees to 2 degrees C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.

PMID:
11739952
DOI:
10.1126/science.1064363
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