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J Health Econ. 2001 Jan;20(1):109-29.

Addressing uncertainty in medical cost-effectiveness analysis implications of expected utility maximization for methods to perform sensitivity analysis and the use of cost-effectiveness analysis to set priorities for medical research.

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Section of General Internal Medicine, Harris Graduate School of Public Policy Studies, Department of Economics, University of Chicago, 5841 S. Maryland Avenue MC 2007, Chicago, IL 60637, USA.


This paper examines the objectives for performing sensitivity analysis in medical cost-effectiveness analysis and the implications of expected utility maximization for methods to perform such analyses. The analysis suggests specific approaches for optimal decision making under uncertainty and specifying such decisions for subgroups based on the ratio of expected costs to expected benefits, and for valuing research using value of information calculations. Though ideal value of information calculations may be difficult, certain approaches with less stringent data requirements may bound the value of information. These approaches suggest methods by which the vast cost-effectiveness literature may help inform priorities for medical research.

[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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