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Science. 2000 Dec 15;290(5499):2133-7.

External control of 20th century temperature by natural and anthropogenic forcings.

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  • 1Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 2SY, UK.


A comparison of observations with simulations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model shows that both natural and anthropogenic factors have contributed significantly to 20th century temperature changes. The model successfully simulates global mean and large-scale land temperature variations, indicating that the climate response on these scales is strongly influenced by external factors. More than 80% of observed multidecadal-scale global mean temperature variations and more than 60% of 10- to 50-year land temperature variations are due to changes in external forcings. Anthropogenic global warming under a standard emissions scenario is predicted to continue at a rate similar to that observed in recent decades.

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