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Br J Psychiatry. 2000 Jul;177:38-41.

Schizophrenia is not disappearing in south-west Scotland.

Author information

1
Department of Clinical Research, Crichton Royal Hospital, Dumfries, Scotland, UK. j.allardyce@clinmed.gla.ac.uk

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Recent work has reported a decline in the incidence of schizophrenia, but it is unclear if these findings reflect a true decrease in its incidence or are an artefact arising from methodological difficulties.

AIMS:

To take account of these methodological difficulties and report service-based incidence rates for schizophrenia in Dumfries and Galloway in south-west Scotland for 1979-98.

METHOD:

Using both clinical diagnoses and diagnoses generated from the Operational Checklist for Psychotic Disorders (OPCRIT) computer algorithm for ICD-10 and DSM-IV schizophrenia, we measured change in the incidence rates over time. We used indirect standardisation techniques and Poisson models to measure the rate ratio linear trend.

RESULTS:

There was a monotonic and statistically significant decline in clinically diagnosed schizophrenia. The summary rate ratio linear trend was 0.77. However, using OPCRIT-generated ICD-10 and DSM-IV diagnoses, there was no significant difference over time.

CONCLUSIONS:

OPCRIT-generated consistent diagnoses revealed no significant fall in the incidence of schizophrenia. Changes in diagnostic practice have caused the declining rates of clinically diagnosed schizophrenia in Dumfries and Galloway.

PMID:
10945086
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
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